Portland Metro Market Report

The RMLS released their market trends for July 2012 today.  Here are the highlights from the Portland Metro area -

• Pending sales rose 23% over July 2011
• Year-to-date average sales price increased 2.5% over last year
• Average days on the market dropped from 149 in 2011 to 120 this year
• Inventory increased 3.9 months of supply in June to 4.6 months in July.  Inventory between 4 and 6 months is considered a stable, healthy market.

There is an abundance of information available for consumers today...let me help you simplify all the data to make smart financial decisions when buying or selling a home.  If you are buying/selling a home, I'd love to help guide you through the process into your new home.

Oregon - 503.212.2322
Washington - 360.977.8329
johnblom@hasson.com

Licensed in OR and WA

SW Washington Market Report

The RMLS Market Action for July was released today.  Here are the highlights from SW Washington -

• Average sales price in July rose 7.6% over July 2011
• Closed sales grew 6.5% over July 2011
• Average sales price year to date is stable compared with last year
• Inventory remained unchanged at 5.4 months

Homes that are priced well are selling quickly and with mortage rates still incredibly low, now is a excellent time to make a move.  The market trends all summer indicate we have hit the bottom of the market and prices are starting to rise.

Whether buying or selling, my objective in every transaction is to simplify the process for my clients while helping them make wise, long-term financial decisions.  If you'd like a better real estate experience, give me a call today!

OR - 503.212.2322
WA - 360.977.8329

Home Prices Increase

Low inventory and great interest rates are starting to have an impact on home values, as one national home values index showed a small increase in year-to-year home prices.  This is the first increase in over five years.  The most recent RMLS Market report also showed positive movement on price.  Compared with June 2011, average sale price last month grew 4.8%.  The median sales price grew 7.9%.  The Portland Metro area had similar gains with an 8.6% increase in median sales price.

Thinking about selling your home?  Get a free home value report instantly right here.

Read the full article on national home values here.

Distressed Property Stats

Last week the RMLS released quarterly stats regarding distressed property sales.  Distressed properties are either short sales or bank-owned homes and have a negative impact on home values.  Here's a quick summary of the numbers:

• In the second quarter of 2012, the number of new listings that were non-distressed properties increased from 71.2% to 81.2%. 
• The percentage of short sales dropped from 15.0% to 9.9%, while bank owned listings dropped from 13.9% to 8.9%. 
• Non-distressed property sales as a percentage of all transactions also increased from 61.1% to 69.9%. 
• The overall number of new listings and sales also increased.  There were 14,565 new listings from January to the end of March compared with 17,817 new listings from April through June.  Closed transaction increased from 7,621 to 10,540.

If this trend continues it will have a positive impact on home values in the Portland and Vancouver markets.  Many buyers view bank-owned houses as the best value on the market, and competition for the new listings has risen, increasing the number of multiple offer situations.  Buyers looking for a bargain should be receiving updated bank-owned listings daily or they risk missing out on an opportunity.  If you'd like to receive a daily updates with new bank-owned homes, send me an e-mail at johnblom@hasson.com.

Source RMLS Blog: www.rmlsbenefits.com

RMLS Market Action - Portland Metro Area

The Portland Metro Area showed signs that prices are starting to stabilize.  In the first quarter of 2012, the average sale price dropped less than one percent compared with the same period last year.  Sales in the first quarter were higher than any first quarter since 2007. 

Comparing March 2012 with March 2011, closed sales increased 4.9% while pending sales rose 12.8%.  More sales activity combined with a decrease in new listings caused inventory to drop down to 5 months, the lowest level since June 2007.

RMLS Market Action Report - SW Washington

 Inventory across the area dropped to 6.4 months, the lowest level since September 2006.  Closed sales in March grew 5.6% over March 2011, although pending sales dropped slightly.  New listings dropped 17.6% from last March, which played a role in the  decrease in inventory. 

Prices continued to slide.  In the first quarter of 2012, average sales price dropped 8.1% while median price dropped 9.7% compared with first quarter 2011. 

Want to see what's happening in your neighborhood?  See active/pending/sold listings in your area, plus market stats for your part of Vancouver with a Free Market Neighborhood Market!  Customized for your neighborhood and delivered to your inbox in under thirty minutes.

Warren Buffet on Housing

In an interview with CNBC, one of America's best known investors said if it were feasible, he would "buy up a couple hundred thousand homes."  When combining today's low prices with low interest rates, buying a home provides an excellent way to build wealth.

Today, a single share of Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffet's investment company) stock costs over $119,000.  Fortunately, you don't need to buy a share of Berkshire Hathaway to take advantage of Buffet's advice.  If you have even moderate credit, you can buy a home for 3.5% down and interest rates near 4%.

If you're ready to start building your wealth, give me a call today!

Real Inventory in Clark County

One of the first indicators people often look at to determine the health of a housing market is the months of inventory.  The RMLS releases a market action report each month that shows the current inventory levels.  The Market Action report that came out earlier this week estimated the level of inventory in Clark County at 8.8 months.  In other words, if no new listings came on the market the homes currently on the market would satisfy buyer's demand for almost 9 months.  While inventory levels have generally been a good indicator, they basic calculations (active listings / listings sold in the last month) do not account for today's market for two reasons. 

Reason # 1 - Proposed Homes

Cheap lots and a decrease in material costs have made new construction a great value.  However, financing for builders is still a major challenge, forcing many builders to advertised "proposed" homes.  These are homes they would like to build, if they had a buyer, but either can't get financing to build as a "spec home" or don't want to build as a spec home.  In other words, this homes are not really in inventory yet.

Reason # 2 - Short Sales

When a seller accepts on offer on a short sale and submits it to the bank for approval, listing agents often leave these home marked as active in case the first buyer gets impatient with the process.  If someone wanted to write an offer on one of these listings, however, they would be in "backup" position and would only get the house if the first buyer walked away from the transaction.  So, these homes could more accurately be described as pending, rather than active.

Revising the Numbers

The January Market Action report listed 2615 active listings and 297 homes sold during the month.  2615 / 297 = 8.8 months of inventory.  I re-ran these calculations based on the numbers as of February 22, with pending and sold data going back 1 month.  Here are the base numbers:

Active: 2569
Sold: 286
Inventory: 9 months

Currently, there are 509 proposed listings.  None of the listings that went from pending/active status to sold were marked as propsed.  When the proposed listings are pulled from inventory, the inventory drops dramatically:

Active (not proposed): 2060
Sold (not proposed): 286
Inventory: 7.2 months

According to the RMLS, there are 250 active short sales that already have an offer.  In reality, this number is likely higher and listings have not been updated.  There were 51 listings marked sold that were previously listed as having an offer.  When these are taken out of the total, inventory actually rises slightly due to the number of shorts sales that closed:

Active (no offer submitted): 2319
Sold (no offer submitted): 235
Inventory: 9.9 months

The most accurate measure on inventory excludes proposed builds and short sales with an offer.  When those homes are excluded from active/sold numbers, inventory is at 7.7 months:

Active (not proposed, no offer submitted): 1810
Sold (not proposed, no offer submitted): 235
Inventory 7.7 months

One last calculation...what if someone needed to move into a new home within 60 days?  This would eliminate a short sale and any proposed listings.  The number of active listings drops nearly in half.  For someone in a hurry to move-in, the inventory level drops to 6.2 months. 

Active (not proposed, not short): 1350
Sold (not proposed, not short): 219
Inventory: 6.2 months

When you consider that the RMLS calculated inventory at 8.8 months supply was lower than 2010 and 2011, the revised inventory level is an strong indicator that we will start to see recovery in the market this year.

If you're thinking of buying or selling a home, work with an agent that understands that market!  Call me today! (360) 977-8329

Housing will add to National GDP in 2012

New economic forecasts predict that housing will add to the US National GDP in 2012.  This last happened 7 years ago, before the housing market started to slide.  Some other highlights from the latest Fannie Mae Strategic Research Group Report included improved consumer spending, decreasing unemployment, and increased manufacturing and services activity.

Read the full press release here.

January East Portland Market Report

Pending and closed sales both jumped in East Portland last month.  In SE Portland, pending sales increased 22.2% over 2011, while NE Portland pendings spiked 45.5%

Over the entire Portland Metro area, the months of inventory increased slightly over December (5.3 months in December 2011 to 7 months in January 2012), but still a full 4 months lower than it was in January 2011.  Average price remained relatively stable at $248,900, a drop of only $200 from January 2011. 

Want to know what's listed and what's sold in your neighborhood?  Request a free neighborhood market report here!

January SW Washington Market Report

Market activity continued to increase in SW Washington last month.  The RMLS reported that closed sales increased 6.1% over January 2011 and pending sales increased 25.1%.  Average time on the market dropped dramatically, from an average of 173 days to 128 days.  Inventory also dropped compared with last January, down to 8.8 months.

Although prices continued to fall over 2011 levels, the increase in activity should help prices stabilize this year and possibly start to increase by the end of the year.

Thinking of buying or selling this year? Request a free market report specific to your neighborhood!

New Home Sales Continue Positive Trend

Data released today from the National Association of Homebuilders showed the third straight month of improving sales in new construction.  In October, 307,000 new homes sold across the US, while the number of homes available remained steady at 162,000.  Total inventory is significantly down.  In October 2010, there were 200,000 new homes available.  At the current rate of absortion, the existing new homes would last 6.3 months, down from 8.5 months supply in October 2010.

Thinking of buying a new home?  Check out these search results for new homes in Vancouver and new construction in NE Portland from http://www.johnblomhomes.com/.

Update: Vancouver Inventory

Based on a large number of e-mails that went out to Realtors this morning, it appears that the RMLS compliance board is going to put short sales with an offer under more scrutiny.  According to the e-mail, if a short sale is still listed in "Active" status, any additional offers must be sent to the bank.  If additional offers are going to be held in backup position only, the listing must be marked "pending." 

The majority of buyers who write an offer on a short sale stipulate that any subsequent offers must be held as a backup, so most short sale properties with an offer should be marked pending.  In a previous post, I commented that there were currently 248 "active" short sale listings that had an offer submitted to the bank.  If the RMLS follows through on enforcing these guidelines, most of these should be marked as pending.  With 2027 total "active" listings, if at least 200 of those short sales are only accepting backups that would reduce the inventory in Vancouver by 10%

Foreclosure Rate at Lowest Point Since 2007

The Mortgage Bankers Association released their quarterly mortgage deliquency suvery today.  While much of the media is focusing on the slight increase in overall deliquency during the 2nd quarter of 2011, which rose to 8.44 percent of all oustanding loans, this is only part of the picture. 

This deliquency rate remains significantly lower than the 2nd quarter of 2010: while deliquency rose 12 basis points over 1st quarter 2011, it is 144 basis points lower than the 2nd quarter of last year.  The deliquency rate includes all oustanding mortgages that are at least 30 days late, but not in foreclosure.  Serious deliquencies, loans that are more than 90 days past due, dropped compared with the previous quarter and the same quarter last year.  Foreclosure starts dropped to the lowest level since 2007 and foreclosure inventory is the lowest since 3rd quarter 2010. 

According to the MBA's chief economist, "While some have argued that this drop in foreclosures is a temporary drop which does not reflect the problems yet to come, this does not appear to be the case, at least at the national level.  There are still problem loans that need to be resolved, but the idea that there is a growing backlog of loans being held back from foreclosure is simply not supported by these numbers."
It will be important to see whether this increase in deliquencies starts a new negative trend, or whether this rise was a temporary setback.

Read the MBA press release here.

Posted by John Blom, Broker
Hasson Company Realtors
johnblom@hasson.com

Real Inventory in Vancouver

One of the most common statistics used to determine the health of the real estate market is Months of Inventory.  This number is found by taking the number of homes that are currently listed and dividing by the average number of sales per month to show how long the current pool of homes for sale would last if no additional homes came on the market.  For example, if there are 100 homes listed and an average of 10 homes per month are sold, 100 homes/10 sold per month = 10 months of inventory.  Pretty simple, right?  Well, not really...

Currently in Vancouver WA, there are 2027 homes listed as "active" the RMLS.  In the last 3 months there have been 964 sales, so an average of 321 sales per month.  2027 / 321 = 6.3 months of inventory.  In reality, though, not all 2027 homes are actually available.  Of the homes currently marked as "active" in the RMLS, 248 are short sales that have at least one, if not multiple offers, already submitted to the bank for approval.  That's over 10% of all active listings! Another 259 homes are new construction listings that are either "proposed," meaning the builder intends to build that house at some point, or "under construction," which means the house is not move-in ready.  Some of these might be ready within a couple weeks, but others might be several months from completion. 

If you take out the short sales with offers submitted and the proposed/new constrution homes, the actual amount of standing inventory is only 1,520.  At the current pace of sales, based on the last three months, that means there is only 4.7 months of inventory, not 6.3!

In statistical terms, when there is more than 6 months of inventory is considered a "buyer's market."  If inventory is below 4 months it is a "seller's  market."  Stabilization of inventory will lead to a stabilization of housing prices, the first step towards recover in the real estate market. 

If you are considering taking advantage of the low interest rates to make a home purchase, now is a great time!  To start your home search and receive daily updates with new listings, e-mail johnblom@hasson.com or give me a call at (360) 977-8329.

Showing Activity Up 8/1-8/7

For the week of August 1st through August 7th, showing activity in SW Washington increased 2.4% over the previous.  Over 3100 houses were shown last week, the highest number since the week of May 9th.

Home Price Projections Positive for Pacific NW

Although national projections for home values remain grim, recent analysis of our local market is significantly better.  While analysts project prices in Miami may drop another 20%, they expect to see prices in the Pacific NW remain stable over the next seven months, followed by rapid gain in the next two years.  Prices in Tacoma are expected to rise to 25% by March 2013, while Seattle and Portland could see 10% annual increases between March 2012 and March 2014.

According to the David Stiff, the Chief Economist for Fiserv, a real estate market research and analysis firm: "Homes are undervalued in the Northwest.  The economy is diverse and the demographics strong. It has tech, manufacturing and extractive industries (like lumbering and mining) and people are still moving into the area."  Read the full article here.

Don't wait for prices and interest rates to start rising...if you are considering buying a new home, now is a great time to start looking.

To receive daily updates with new listings, contact me at johnblom@hasson.com or call me at (360) 816-2627!

John Blom
Your Vancouver WA Realtor

Distressed Property Stats

The Regional Multiple Listing Service released statistics for distressed property sales for 2010, some of which contradicts common impressions of the local market.  Despite the sentiment that bank-owned and short-sale properties are the only segment of the market that is active, the number of non-distressed sales is closely proportionate to the number of non-distressed new listings.  For each quarter of 2010, non-distressed listings represented between 56.8% and 71.1% of all new listings.  The percentage of non-distressed sales ranged from 59.5% to 70.7%. 

In each quarter, the number of closed short sales was smaller percentage than new short sale listings, reflectign the challenges that go with these transaction.

Least surprising of the data was the high number of bank-owned properties that sold.  In the first quarter, only 8.9% of all new listings were bank-owned, but 22.9% of all closed sales were bank-owned. 

Bank owned properties continue to provide the best value for buyers who are willing to come in and do a little work, as these homes are usually in need of some TLC.  If you are interested in getting a list of bank-owned properties, e-mail me at johnblom@hasson.com. 

-John Blom
Your Portland and Vancouver WA Realtor

New Housing Starts

Data on New Building Permits and Housing Starts was released today and continued the trend of mixed market news.  Both permits and starts increased significantly of February, but both were lower than the March 2010 data.  The western region saw a greater increase in month-to-month starts, with March up over 27% from February, but a greater decline in year-to-year starts, down 18% from last year. 


New Permits (seasonally adjusted):

• March 2011 - 594,000
• February 2011 - 534,000
• March 2010 - 685,000

New Housing Starts (seasonally adjusted):

• March 2011 - 549,000
• February 2011 - 515,000
• March 2010 - 634,000

If you are thinking about buying new construction or building a home, give me a call (360-977-8329) or send me an e-mail at johnblom@hasson.com.  I can help you walk through the pros and cons of new construction and help you find the builder and location that is right for you!

Search for New Homes

John Blom
Your Porltand and Vancouver WA Realtor

Showing Activity Up in Clark County

Showing activity increased 2.5% in Clark County for the week ending 2/27/2011 compared with the previous week. There were 2,926 showings between 2/20 and 2/27. Activity has remained fairly consistent throughout most of 2011.

For more information on Homes for Sale in Vancouver WA, call me today!

-John Blom, Your Portland and Vancouver WA Realtor